Belarusian Railway

State Association «Belarusian Railway»

UNP: 100088574 · 17 Lenin St., 220030 Minsk

MonopoliesCity-formingHoldingsRestructuring

Identification

UNP100088574
OKEDrailway transport activities
Legal formState Association
Governing bodyMinistry of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Belarus
State share100%
Address17 Lenin St., 220030 Minsk

Financial statements

k BYN

Line itemReporting yearPrior year
Fixed assets1 200 225968 939
Intangible assets13 7017 994
Investments in long-term assets33 53582 441
Long-term financial investments13 84913 856
Deferred tax assets38 32137 145
Long-term receivables8221 020
Other long-term assets30 201222 391
Total Section I (long-term assets)1 330 6541 333 786
Inventories4 7665 208
Deferred expenses161 007102 529
VAT on acquired goods, works, services85 88871 183
Short-term receivables1 793 0081 708 917
Short-term financial investments32 09141 780
Cash and cash equivalents72 88481 063
Total Section II (short-term assets)2 149 6442 010 680
BALANCE (assets)3 480 2983 344 466
Charter capital00
Additional capital319 286227 634
Retained earnings (uncovered loss)-328 623-233 922
Total Section III (equity)-9 337-6 288
Long-term loans and borrowings1 842 2561 567 518
Long-term lease liabilities392 014369 214
011 814
Deferred income17 722172 235
Total Section IV (long-term liabilities)2 252 0862 120 899
Short-term loans and borrowings249 87362 085
Current portion of long-term liabilities324 020569 141
Short-term payables663 147515 220
— on lease payments225 678123 805
Deferred income50983 409
Total Section V (short-term liabilities)1 237 5491 229 855
BALANCE (equity and liabilities)3 480 2983 344 466

Computed metrics

K1 · Current ratio
1.737
f1_290 / f1_690 = 2149644 / 1237549
K1 · Own working capital ratio
-0.623
(f1_490 - f1_190) / f1_290 = (-9337 - 1330654) / 2149644
K2 · Sales profitability
0.279%
f2_060 / f2_010 = 98627 / 352915
K2 · Net profitability
-0.269%
f2_210 / f2_010 = -94948 / 352915
K3 · Revenue dynamics
0.4448%
(f2_010_current - f2_010_prior) / f2_010_prior = (352915 - 244279) / 244279
K3 · Debt dynamics
0.0414%
((f1_590+f1_690) - (f1_590_prior+f1_690_prior)) / (f1_590_prior+f1_690_prior)
Operating cash-flow margin
F4.040 / F2.010 × 100%

Integrity checks

Checks passed: 1 of 6

Balance sheet balances (assets = liabilities)
Cash-flow integrity
Cash-flow residuals
Cash position
Capital transition
Profit consistency

Failed checks indicate gaps or inconsistencies in the source filing itself (typically in form F4, the cash-flow statement), not data-entry errors. The balance sheet (assets = liabilities) reconciles for every enterprise.

Signals

Red flags
  • Equity -9,337k BYN (-6,288 in 2022) — negative for a second year
  • K1_sos = -0.623 vs norm >0.2 — long-term assets fully debt-financed
  • Net loss 3rd year running: -127.7m (2022) → -94.9m (2023) → directional -120m (1H 2024)
  • Uncovered loss grew from -233.9m to -328.6m (+40.5%) — accumulation continues
  • Finance-activity expense 669m (+23.8% YoY): FX losses 487m + interest 116m (+78.6%)
  • Long-term borrowings up +17.5% (1.57m → 1.84m)
Yellow flags
  • K1_current formally OK (1.737), but 83% of current assets = receivables 1.79m
  • Short-term lease payments in payables 226m (+82.3% YoY from 124m)
Green signals
  • K3_revenue +44.5% YoY — significant growth under sanctions
  • K2_sales 27.9% — operational efficiency
  • Profit from sales up 8.8x (11.2m → 98.6m) on 1.44x revenue growth
  • Income from stakes in subsidiaries 19.9m — holding structure is working
  • 1H 2024 directional: profit from sales 47m (1H 2023: 19m, +145% YoY) — positive operating momentum continues

Recommendation

Suggested outcome
Restructuring
Category
Distressed
Health score
0.73
Confidence level
Low

BZD (Belarusian Railway) is a natural monopoly over the railway infrastructure of the Republic of Belarus, a state association subordinate to the Ministry of Transport and Communications. Balance-sheet value BYN 3.48bn, 2023 revenue BYN 353m (+44.5% over 2022), a net loss for the third year running (−BYN 94.9m in 2023). The picture diverges along two planes: operationally the business is healthy and improving (sales margin 27.9%, profit from sales grew 8.8×); financially it is critically weak (negative equity −BYN 9.3m, accumulated uncovered loss −BYN 328.6m, long-term loans +17.5% over the year, financing-activity expenses of BYN 669m of which exchange differences BYN 487m and interest BYN 116m).

Recommendation: Restructuring — financial, not operational. Restructuring of the debt portfolio and reduction of currency exposure, while preserving state ownership and operational continuity. Privatization of the infrastructure core is not applicable (a national-level natural monopoly); liquidation is not applicable (critical infrastructure).

Confidence: MEDIUM_LOW. The source is the 2023 annual report (FY-2, as of the 2026 pilot); FY-1 (the 2024 annual) is not yet published on epfr. Semi-annual 1H 2024 data (available in a separate file, P&L) is used as a directional indicator — the positive operating dynamics are confirmed, and the half-year net loss is already −BYN 120m (will exceed the 2023 annual). Additionally: for state associations, F3 (changes in equity) and F4 (cash flow) are structurally absent on epfr — this is a feature of state-association reporting, not a data defect. Of the 6 cross-form sanity checks, 1 is possible (the balance equation — passed).

### Why restructuring

By the typological rule: monopolies primary → privatization and liquidation are struck out structurally. Restructuring + state_investment remain.

State_investment is considered as a supplement but not the main recommendation, because operationally the business is healthy and growing without additional investment: revenue +44.5%, profit from sales ×8.8 over the year. The problem is not a shortage of capital for operations — the problem is in the structure of existing obligations (long-term loans of BYN 1.84bn + currency exposure lead to BYN 669m of financing-activity expenses against revenue of 353m). Injecting more capital without restructuring the old debt = aggravating the problem.

Restructuring in the BNR 2.0 concept for BZD means:

1. Debt-portfolio restructuring — refinancing the BYN 1.84bn of long-term loans with the goal of lowering the interest rate (current interest of 115.9M = 6.3% of the average book value of the debt, ≈ 7–8% effective rate). Possible instruments: state guarantees, issuance of infrastructure bonds upon political stabilization, restructuring through state-participated banks on concessional terms.

2. Reduction of currency exposure — the bulk of the debt, on indirect signs, is FX-denominated (exchange differences produce a −53M effect on the net result). Restructuring toward local currency or hedging.

3. Preservation of operational continuity — no cuts to the network, services, or jobs. BNR 2.0 social protection (15% of shares / 80% of jobs) for BZD should be interpreted as a commitment to preserve all jobs in depots, hubs, and repair plants. Given the city-forming character for several cities — this is especially important.

4. State ownership is preserved — BZD is not in the privatization scope. This is consistent with international practice (DB, SNCF, ÖBB, JR — all mixed or fully state-owned).

### Health_score 0.55 — calculation and interpretation

Health_score on a 0–2 scale (per the project methodology). Rough orientation:

  • 0.0–0.7: Critical
  • 0.7–1.0: Distressed
  • 1.0–1.2: Stable
  • 1.2–2.0: Strategic

Calculation for BZD (approximate):

  • Base rate of the operating part (sales K2 0.28, K3_revenue +0.44, profit from sales) → ≈ 1.2
  • Financial adjustment (negative equity, persistent net loss, debt-expense ratio) → −0.65
  • Total ≈ 0.55, falling into Critical

Qualifier: "leaning recoverable critical" — BZD differs from a case where the operating base is destroyed. Recoverability exists, but it requires financial intervention. This qualifier describes cases where operating indicators are positive while capital and bottom-line profitability are negative (the "operationally healthy, financially in crisis" pattern).

OSINT Belarus 2.0